Why Prop 8 Polls Were Wrong

The LA Times has a story on why Prop 8 passed despite polls suggesting that it would fail:

When comparing the findings from the Field Poll's final pre-election survey to the Edison Media Research exit poll of voters, the biggest differences related to the turnout and preferences of frequent churchgoers and Catholics.

This is pretty much what I've been thinking, too. And I think a new term is going to be coined (like "The Bradley Effect") to capture how one segment of a population can vote two way, simultaneously.

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com projected that it would be close, but he also noted that ballot measures are notoriously difficult to forecast.

Related, the post-Prop 8 world is playing itself out. LA's KUTV is reporting:

Gay and lesbian spokespersons asked for help from the LDS Church in winning gay rights in Utah, but not for gay marriage, in the wake of the passage of Proposition 8 in California. "While we disagree with the Church's position on Proposition 8," said Stephanie Pappas, Chair of Equality Utah at a news conference on Monday. "We respect that their position is based on the guiding principles of their faith" . . . "We're looking for reconciliation," said Utah State Sen. Scott McCoy a gay Democrat.

You have to start somewhere . . . .