Prop 8 Myths and Missteps

Nate Silver, the polling superhero of FiveThirtyEight.com, dispels some of the myths about why Prop 8 passed:

Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin . . . At the end of the day, Prop 8's passage was more a generational matter than a racial one. If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two. It appears that the generational splits may be larger within minority communities than among whites, although the data on this is sketchy.

The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that -- and there's no polite way to put this -- the older voters aren't going to be around for all that much longer, and they'll gradually be cycled out and replaced by younger voters who grew up in a more tolerant era. Everyone knew going in that Prop 8 was going to be a photo finish -- California might be just progressive enough and 2008 might be just soon enough for the voters to affirm marriage equity. Or, it might fall just short, which is what happened. But two or four or six or eight years from now, it will get across the finish line.

This is pretty much in line with what Michelangelo Signorile has been saying. We are, relatively speaking, a young movement, and we need to be patient, and we need to keep fighting.

And as we keep fighting, especially as the protests continue, is that these are supposed to be peaceful protests. Via Joe.My.God, here is footage of a protest rally in Palm Springs. A Prop 8 proponent, an elderly woman carrying a large cross, is surrounded by a group of gay men who try to interrupt her interview. The cross is ripped from her hands, thrown to the ground, and stomped on.